June Rainfall amounts fell to 30-year low in 11 parishes, four experiencing drought conditions - MET Service

Eleven of Jamaica’s 14 parishes recorded rainfall amounts below their 30-year climatological average in June, the Meteorological Service of Jamaica (MET Service) has disclosed.

Principal Director of the MET Service Evan Thompson said at the end of June, four parishes – St Elizabeth, St James, St Ann and St Mary -- were determined to be experiencing drought conditions.

Manchester and St Catherine were both “basically on the borderline”, said Thompson, explaining that they were “just about moving towards drought conditions”.

“So, it's most likely that having not experienced significant rainfall during the month of July, that situation would have worsened,” he said.

The MET Service principal director was addressing a press conference on the emerging drought conditions in Jamaica at the Ministry of Water, Environment and Climate Change, in Kingston.

He noted that July is usually the month with the least amount of rainfall climatologically and is considered the mid-summer drought month.

Thompson said one of the main reasons for the dry conditions is the El Niño phenomenon, which is associated with climate variability.

“The El Niño actually was generated in June, at the early part of June, and we see that it has continued to get stronger and stronger going through July and this is expected to continue that trend,” he said.

El Niño is projected to strengthen through to the end of the year and into the first quarter of next year.

“The strength of the event is proportional to the probability of unusual and extreme weather impacts, including higher temperatures and fewer rainfall occurrences. It doesn't mean we will have no rainfall. It just means that the number of incidents of rainfall will be fewer,” he explained.

Meanwhile, Thompson said rainfall projections for August to October are expected to be below normal, with probabilities ranging from 40 per cent to 50 per cent in parts of most parishes.

He said rainfall probabilities of 50 per cent and higher is expected for parts of St Elizabeth, Manchester, Clarendon, St Catherine, Kingston and St Andrew, as well as eastern parts of St Thomas and Portland and border areas of St James and Trelawny.

For the next three months, above-normal temperatures are in the forecast for western and central parishes. Eastern parishes are also likely to experience temperatures above normal, although there is lower certainty, he said.

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