Meteorological service cautions against hurricane complacency
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Although a below-average hurricane season is anticipated this year, Climate Services Manager at the Meteorological Service of Jamaica, Jacqueline Spence-Hemmings, is emphasising that there is no room for complacency.
“We don’t say below normal to say get complacent. If [Hurricane] Melissa has taught us anything, it is that we only need one [to remind us of the importance of preparedness],” she stated during the National Disaster Risk Management Council Meeting at the Office of the Prime Minister on Wednesday.
Spence-Hemmings’ remarks followed her disclosure that there is a 55 per cent likelihood of below-normal activity for the 2026 hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to November 30.
“The expectation is [that] eight to 14 named storms could form. Three to six of those could become hurricanes, and one to three, major hurricanes,” she informed.
The Climate Services Manager noted that one of the main factors contributing to this forecast is the development of the El Niño phenomenon during the season.
“It’s [related to] the sea surface temperatures in the Pacific. What happens is that when that warming occurs in the Pacific, it changes the dynamics in the Atlantic and results in us getting subsidence or downward air in the Atlantic, which results in more drought, less rainfall, hotter conditions and all of that,” she explained.
El Niño conditions tend to suppress the formation of tropical storms and hurricanes, while warmer ocean temperatures and low winds support a more active season.
“It is expected to intensify during the hurricane season, and it normally affects the number of systems we see forming during the season,” Spence-Hemmings stated.
She noted that El Niño could also bring drier, hotter conditions and severe drought.
“[In] past El Niño events… [during] 2015, 2016, 2023, and 2024… we saw a significant reduction in rainfall amounts, especially in the primary rainfall season of August, September, October,” Spence-Hemmings detailed.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has indicated an 82 per cent probability of El Niño emerging between May and July.
Spence-Hemmings noted that the weather phenomenon, while expected to peak in December, could persist well into 2027.
- JIS News
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